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Nate Silver, the New York Times statistics guru, predicts that President Obama has a 91% chance of winning reelection today. But Silver is careful to note that his prediction isn’t prophesy, tweeting, “IMPORTANT: That we have Obama as a ~90% favorite does NOT mean we’re predicting a landslide. We expect a close election.”
Not everyone is so cautious. Although Obama’s chances look better than Mitt Romney‘s, it’s still an open (and tight) race until the votes are counted. A quick list of would-be fortunetellers getting slightly ahead of themselves…
1. Irish Bookies
Paddy Power, a betting firm in Ireland, is “paying out early on an Obama victory,” to the tune of $650,000. “Romney gave it a good shot and is doing well in the popular vote, but we suspect he’s had his moment in the sun and is likely to be remembered more for his legendary gaffes than presidential potential,” Paddy Power declared in the Irish Times newspaper. It’s going to be a gaffe of sorts if they have to pay out twice.
Yesterday, Jay-Z changed the lyrics of his classic “99 Problems” to “If you’re having world problems I feel bad for you son, I got 99 problems but a Mitt ain’t one.” Depending on how Ohio votes, a Mitt might be.
3. The South Park Guys
We love Trey Parker and Matt Stone, but titling Wednesday night’s episode “Obama Wins” seems a little premature on Tuesday morning. (Then again, judging from “Team America: World Police,” they’re more politically astute than just about anyone.)
4. Jim Cramer
CNBC’s “Mad Money” host isn’t just predicting an Obama win — he’s convinced that the president will rake in 440 of 538 electoral votes. Hey, anything can happen, but “Mad” sounds about right.
5. Bob Dylan
During a concert last night, the legendary singer told the crowd, “Don’t believe the media. I think it’s going to be a landslide.” We’re guessing that Nate Silver would smell something blowing in the wind.